After July 24: Section 301 Tariffs

Published: June 8, 2026

In February 2026, the Supreme Court struck down the Trump administration's IEEPA tariffs. Within days, the White House responded with Section 122 — a flat 10% global surcharge invoking a 1974 statute never previously used. A federal court later ruled that tariff unlawful too. The appeals court froze that ruling. Duties continued to be collected.

Through all of it, one date was fixed: July 24, 2026. That is when Section 122 expires by law — and the president cannot extend it unilaterally.

What comes next is no longer speculation. On June 2, 2026 — five days ago — the U.S. Trade Representative published proposed Section 301 tariffs covering 60 countries. The architecture of the post-July 24 tariff regime is now visible.

This piece explains what changed, what stays, and what importers need to do before the window closes.

How We Got Here: From IEEPA to Section 122 to Section 301

Understanding what comes after July 24 requires understanding the sequence that brought us here.

February 20, 2026: The U.S. Supreme Court ruled in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump that the Trump administration's IEEPA tariffs — the sweeping global duties that had defined trade policy since early 2025 — exceeded the president's statutory authority. The ruling took effect immediately. Over $90 billion in already-collected IEEPA duties became potentially refundable.

February 24, 2026: Four days later, Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 was invoked for the first time in history. A 10% global surcharge — later announced at 15%, though legal proceedings have centered on the 10% rate — took effect on virtually all imports, replacing the struck-down IEEPA tariffs. The statute caps both the rate (15%) and the duration (150 days). No extensions without Congressional action.

March 11–12, 2026: USTR launched two parallel Section 301 investigations — one covering structural excess manufacturing capacity in 16 major economies, a second covering forced labor enforcement practices in 60+ trading partners. Both were explicitly designed to produce replacement tariffs before Section 122 expires. Section 301 has no rate cap and no time limit.

June 2, 2026: USTR published the findings of the forced labor investigation and proposed new Section 301 tariffs covering 60 countries. The post-July 24 landscape is now taking shape.

For a full breakdown of Section 122 and what importers should do before it expires, see our earlier analysis here.

Section 301 Tariff 2026:

What the June 2 Announcement Said

The USTR's June 2 findings are the most consequential tariff development since the Supreme Court's February ruling. Here is what was proposed:

The forced labor investigation — 60 countries: USTR determined that all 60 trading partners either lack a complete prohibition on imports of goods produced using forced labor, or fail to effectively enforce the prohibitions they have. The proposed action:

• 10% Section 301 tariff for 15 trading partners that have taken meaningful steps toward forced labor prohibition: Canada, Ecuador, the European Union, Indonesia, Mexico, Pakistan, Argentina, Bangladesh, Cambodia, El Salvador, Guatemala, Malaysia, Taiwan, and the United Kingdom

  
  

• 12.5% Section 301 tariff for the remaining 45 trading partners that have failed to enforce — this group includes China, India, Vietnam, Thailand, Turkey, South Korea, and most others

  
  

Brazil — separate investigation: On June 1, USTR released findings from a separate Section 301 investigation into Brazil covering digital trade, intellectual property, and deforestation. The proposed tariff is 25% — and it appears intended to stack on top of the 12.5% forced labor rate, for a potential combined rate of 37.5% on Brazilian imports.

What is exempt: The proposed Section 301 tariffs carry a similar exemption structure to Section 122 — agricultural products, aviation parts, industrial inputs, pharmaceuticals, and goods already subject to Section 232 tariffs.

Critical timeline:

• Public comment period: open until July 6, 2026

• Public hearing: July 7, 2026

• Expected finalization: before July 24

  
  

What Stays, What Changes, What Stacks

The shift from Section 122 to Section 301 is not a simple swap. The architecture is meaningfully different — and for many importers, more complex.

Section 122 was flat. One rate, applied globally. Every country outside the exemptions paid the same 10–15% surcharge. Straightforward to model.

Section 301 is differentiated. Country-specific rates based on investigation findings. Two simultaneous investigations can result in stacking. The forced labor investigation and the excess capacity investigation are separate — a country covered by both could face combined rates.

What this means by origin:

• China: Section 301 (25% on Lists 1–3, 7.5% on List 4A) has been in place since 2018 and was unaffected by the IEEPA ruling or Section 122. After July 24, the 10% Section 122 surcharge drops — but country-specific Section 301 from the new investigations may replace it. Total effective rate on most Chinese goods currently sits around 35% (Section 301 + Section 122); the post-July 24 rate depends on how the excess capacity investigation concludes.

  
  

• Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia: Currently paying 10% Section 122 on top of existing duties. Post-July 24, forced labor investigation proposes 12.5% Section 301 — potentially higher than what they're paying now, and more durable. No expiration date.

  
  

• EU, Canada, Mexico, Taiwan: Proposed 10% Section 301 under forced labor investigation. USMCA-qualifying goods from Canada and Mexico were exempt from Section 122 — that exemption may not carry forward under Section 301. Watch the final rule carefully.

  
  

• India: Currently paying Section 122. The U.S.-India bilateral deal announced in February 2026 reduced the reciprocal tariff rate to 18% — but the interaction between that deal, the forced labor investigation (12.5%), and any excess capacity findings is not yet resolved.

  
  

• Brazil: 37.5% combined exposure if both proposed rates are finalized. One of the most significant single-country changes in the post-July 24 regime.

  
  

Section 232 remains unchanged. Steel, aluminum, automobiles, and semiconductors are subject to their own tariffs under separate authority. These were not affected by the IEEPA ruling, Section 122, or the current Section 301 investigations. They will not disappear after July 24.

The Second Investigation Is Still Open

The excess capacity investigation covering 16 economies — China, EU, Mexico, Japan, India, Singapore, Switzerland, Norway, Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, South Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, and Bangladesh — has not yet produced proposed tariffs.

This investigation covers structural overcapacity in manufacturing sectors: electronics, semiconductors, automotive components, batteries, machinery, and metals. The findings could produce additional Section 301 tariffs in late 2026 that stack on top of the forced labor rates announced June 2.

For importers from these 16 economies, the June 2 announcement is not the full picture. A second wave of tariffs is possible before the end of the year.

What Importers Are Missing

Most importers are still modeling Section 122. The June 2 announcement changes that calculation materially — but the public comment period runs until July 6, the hearing is July 7, and finalization is expected within days of July 24. The window to respond and plan is extremely short.

The country-specific differentiation is new exposure. Under Section 122, the only question was whether your goods were exempt. Under Section 301, the question is which investigation covers your origin country, at what rate, and whether the two investigations stack. Importers sourcing from multiple countries need to model each origin separately.

The exemption structures may not be identical. Section 122 exemptions covered USMCA goods, Section 232 products, pharmaceuticals, critical minerals, and energy. Section 301's Annex exemptions are similar but not identical. Check your HTS codes against the proposed Section 301 Annex before July 24.

Section 232 expansion is still coming. Investigations into pharmaceuticals, pharmaceutical active ingredients, and medical devices are ongoing. These could produce new national security tariffs in late 2026 that stack on top of Section 301 rates — independent of the July 24 transition.

IEEPA refunds are a separate track. If you paid duties under the IEEPA tariffs struck down in February, those refunds are processed under the CAPE system — a separate process entirely from the Section 122 and Section 301 transition. Do not conflate the two.

What to Do Before July 24

1. Map your post-July 24 duty rate by origin country. For every country you source from, identify: the proposed Section 301 rate (10% or 12.5%), whether a bilateral deal modifies that rate, whether the excess capacity investigation adds a second layer, and whether any Section 232 exposure applies. This is not a single number — it is a matrix.

2. Check the Section 301 Annex exemptions. The proposed Annex covers agricultural products, aviation parts, industrial inputs, minerals, and pharmaceuticals. If your HTS codes fall within the Annex, your post-July 24 exposure may be lower than the headline rate suggests.

3. Consider submitting public comments before July 6. The comment period closes July 6. Importers who can demonstrate material harm from the proposed rates have a formal channel to make that case. The July 7 hearing is also open to registered participants.

4. Model the USMCA question for Canada and Mexico. USMCA-qualifying goods were exempt from Section 122. The proposed Section 301 tariffs do not carry an automatic USMCA exemption. If this exemption does not carry forward, Canada and Mexico origin costs increase.

5. Separate July 24 planning from IEEPA refund tracking. Both require action, but they are different processes, different timelines, and different documents. Don't let one crowd out the other.

6. Watch the Federal Register between now and July 24. Final Section 301 tariff rates could be published with as little as 15 days' notice. Changes can move fast — as the IEEPA→Section 122 transition demonstrated, the gap between announcement and implementation can be measured in days.

The Bottom Line

July 24 is not the end of U.S. import tariffs. It is the end of Section 122 — a temporary, legally constrained mechanism that was always designed as a bridge, not a destination.

The current 10% Section 122 tariff is temporary, but the tariffs themselves are not going away. They are being replaced with Section 301 tariffs that could be higher, more targeted, and more durable.

The June 2 announcement made the replacement architecture visible. For importers who have been planning around Section 122's flat 10% rate, the shift to country-differentiated Section 301 rates — with a second investigation still pending — requires a new model, not an update to the old one.

The window between now and July 24 is where that model gets built. After that, the rates are locked in.

Managing tariff exposure across multiple origin countries and trade lanes? Get in touch with the Movargo team — we track Federal Register developments, map duty exposure by HTS code and origin, and help importers understand where their real costs sit before the rates change.